A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
